The news just gets worse about direct mail. The Direct Marketing Association has revised its forecast that volume would fall by 1% this year, and is now predicting a 10% decline, according to an article in Brandweek.

But is this really news? Actually, that 10% figure is a bit on the low side.

Standard mail volume fell to 18.8 billion pieces in the quarter that ended June 30, compared with 23.2 billion last year at this time, the USPS reports. That’s a lot more than 10%. And B2B mailers expect to spend 34% less on direct mail this year, according to MarketingProfs.

Yet we disagree with Brandweek that direct mail has joined the “list of analog media crushed by the Great Recession.” Even online media spending has flattened in the face of the downturn. And the economy isn’t solely to blame—mail volume has also been hurt by the shift to online media, and by better targeting.

The direct mail business can’t seem to get a break on the PR front. On the one hand, it’s described as dying. Yet consumer advocates are pushing do-not-mail bills and complaining about the increase in junk mail.

“Although statistics are hard to find, the recession may be contributing to a rise in direct mailings, and some of those cause concern for critics,” The Kansas City Star recently wrote.

Are you active in the mail channel? This is no time to cut back. For one thing, your piece has a better chance of standing out when fewer companies are mailing.

For another, direct mail lends itself to “narrowcast” marketing, and it works well in tandem with other media. A personalized, highly targeted mail effort accompanied by email can drive both response and Web site traffic.

How do you achieve that? You can model your customer list against our BRAD database and rent the names of identical mail prospects.

And get this: The USPS, in an effort to prime the pump, is offering a summer rebate to standard mailers—30% for excess mail volume, according to Direct—and it’s planning to a rebate to First Class mailers in the fall.

Our advice? Go for it.